A mere 60 days ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the source of the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have put together ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.